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正文 四十八、治乱循环之本源(第1页/共3页)

在人类历史上,各国、各文明、各族群都普遍面临人口和土地的矛盾。随着人口增长,当下的土地和资源终将无法满足现有势力的生存,必须寻找到新的地方、新的产出才能缓解矛盾。以我现在这个新的时空为例,小到扈部周边的十几个部落,中到核心四盟和整个尼国,大到……整个尼安德特族群乃至北方的智人族群,无不被这个问题困扰着。因此,扈部等部落意图向南迁徙,核心四盟和大同盟也要北上、西进和南下,而北面的智人更是年复一年攻击大神山防线,抢夺尼安德特人最后的家园。人口的增长和现有产出的不足,驱使着所有势力不断萌发蚕食、侵吞邻居土地和资源的倾向,并最终付诸实施,文明的冲突与战火随之而来。

在我前世的时空,道理也同样。在古代,由于观念及缺乏避孕手段等问题,所有势力的人口都在增长,这些增长虽有快有慢,趋势却始终不变,最终,人口会达到帝国现有土地的承载力临界点,帝国随之开始向外膨胀扩张。

因此,华夏文明不断扩展,直到国家的边界抵达荒漠、雨林、高原和大海;罗马人东征西讨,最终被雨林、沙漠和距离阻隔方才停止扩张;在美洲、非洲,庞大的玛雅帝国和阿克苏姆帝国陆续征服了周边所有宜居的土地,直到被山川地理阻隔;甚至夏威夷列岛、琉球群岛等岛屿上,也多次出现过统一的、征服目之所及全部土地的国家出现。

人口持续上升,而各个国家、文明受到土地限制,终有一天会停止扩张边界。当扩张停止的那一刻到来,帝国的死期也就临近了。继续新生的人口会迅速消耗掉国家的储备,无论人民怎么精耕细作、怎么善于经商、怎么省吃俭用,消耗都会不可逆转地超过土地的产出,最终引发饥荒、流民潮、死亡和崩溃、湮灭,一如明末故事。

于是,不可一世的罗马帝国崩溃了,强大的玛雅文明灰飞烟灭了,各个帝国犹如美丽的昙花,纷纷消失在历史洪流当中。而华夏文明虽坚挺至今,但农业帝国仍无法摆脱沙漠、海洋和高原的桎梏,在数千年历史长河中不断崩溃、重生、再崩溃、再涅槃重生,形成了单一文明独特的“治乱循环”,成为整个华夏大地所有王朝的诅咒。强汉、盛唐、富宋、悍明,各个繁华如烟的文明纷纷在辉煌过后迎来坠落,为后世留下青史几页,令人唏嘘意难平。

即使是获得雨果奖的《三体》,书写全宇宙所有文明的图景时,依然有“所有的文明在不断扩张,但宇宙中的物质总和保持不变”的定律约束,并最终导致可怕的、互相毁灭的“黑暗森林”。

所以,破解该矛盾的终极秘诀,除了限制人口增长外,便是尽力扩大产出,使相同的土地能够养活更多的人。在古代农业帝国时期,限制产出增长的因素主要有“土地肥力周期”(即随着人口和产品增长,土地所含的物质在逐步降低,最终导致王朝末期土地肥力逊于王朝初期);“政权治理周期”(即各个王朝均由开局的政治清明演变为制度僵化、人事盘根错节、利益 『加入书签,方便阅读』
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