正文 第368章 该如面对(第2页/共2页)
影响消费。加上失业率上升以及美元贬值导致油价上涨等因素综合影响，势必会让国经济陷入严重衰退。而国经济的衰退将严重地影响全球的经济增长，因为国经济总量占世界经济的28，同时国又是世界上最大的消费品市场，2005年国居民的消费支出约为8万亿美元，占全球gdp的20。因此，一旦国消费需求下降，这个供需缺口是世界上任何一个国家都无法弥补的，根据国际货币基金的预测，国经济每下降一个百分点，亚洲新兴国家市场将平均下降0。13个百分点。”
“因此次贷危机导致的金融危机将严重影响以国际贸易和依靠出口带动经济增长的国家。次贷危机导致国家庭收入降低而带来的消费降低。以及美元贬值带来的出口国商品竞争力下降，这两个因素都会影响依赖出口拉动经济增长的国家。而不幸的是我国恰巧也是以出口拉动经济增长为主的国家，我国自改变开放以来，吸引外资，扩大出口以拉动经济增长一直是我国的主要经济导向。所以这次次贷危机势必会对我国经济造成巨大影响，据相关数据我国去年的经济增长率是9。9，按此态势，今年肯定是两位数，但爆发经济危机后，我想08年经济地长可能会有大幅下降。所以我们如果想应对这次次贷危机唯一的方法就是扭转以出口为主导的经济发展方向，转而以内需拉动经济增长，才能保证我国经济继续良性健康发展。简单说就是大幅增加货币供应，并以基建、房地产等为投资方向的经济刺激计划，这也是我之前在项目报告中提过的打造内外经济双循环体系的构想。靠一条腿走路总是很危险的，我们依靠出口为导向的外向型经济政策拉动经济增长已有二十多年了，是到了该改变的时候了。”
季云昌听了后沉思了一会后提出他的疑问：“顾队长您说得很好，不过刚才你说过国会利用大水漫灌的方式转嫁经济危机，我们这个时候也用大水漫灌，岂不是主动帮国解救经济危机？”
季云昌的意思很明显，顾霄你自己的说法有点前后矛盾了。
顾霄听到季云昌的话叹了口气：“这也是没有办法的事，且不说现在全球经济你中有我，我中有你，经济互相牵扯甚深。如果华国不配合国缓解这次次贷危机，那么意味着华国将要和国正式摊牌。因为没有华国这个世界最大的制造业国家和高端产品消费大国配合，国既享受不了华国生产的价格低廉的日用品，也无法将高端产品卖给华国赚取超额利润。那么国经济危机完全无法解放，会引爆更多的社会危机，而且由此而来的国际地位也将受到华国的严重挑战，这将会逼使国马上就对我国进行极限打压，甚至发动战争。”
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